Bitcoin Mining Industry Faces Crucial Moment, says JPMorgan
The bitcoin (BTC) mining industry is currently at a crucial juncture, as the approval of a spot BTC exchange-traded-fund (ETF) could potentially trigger a rally. This news comes at a time when the industry is already dealing with record-breaking hashrates and the impending block reward halving, which pose risks to the industry’s revenues and profitability. JPMorgan has expressed these viewpoints in a research report released on Wednesday.
JPMorgan’s View on Mining Operators
According to JPMorgan analysts, the bank prefers mining operators that provide the best relative value considering factors such as their existing hashrate, operational efficiency, power contracts, funded growth plans, and liquidity. They have initiated coverage of several mining operators with their respective ratings and price targets. CleanSpark (CLSK) has received an overweight rating with a price target of $5.50, while Marathon Digital (MARA) has been rated underweight with a $5 target. Riot Platforms (RIOT) also received an underweight rating with a $6.50 target, and Cipher Mining (CIFR) received a neutral rating. The bank has upgraded Iris Energy (IREN) from neutral to overweight.
SEC’s Delayed Decision on Bitcoin ETF
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, which has caused anticipation and speculation in the crypto market. Market participants hope that any approval will attract a flood of mainstream money into the sector.
JPMorgan’s Top Pick: CleanSpark
Among the mining operators, JPMorgan considers CleanSpark as the top pick due to its favorable balance of scale, growth potential, power costs, and relative value.
Analysis of Other Mining Operators
According to the bank’s analysts, Marathon is the largest mining operator. However, it has the highest energy costs and lowest margins. On the other hand, Riot has relatively low power costs and liquidity but is the most expensive stock in their coverage universe. Cipher Mining, on the other hand, has the lowest power costs but faces growth constraints.
Impact of Block Reward Halving
JPMorgan estimates that the four-year block reward opportunity stands at approximately $20 billion, considering the current bitcoin prices. However, the impending block reward halving, expected in the second quarter of 2024, could potentially impact profitability. The bank predicts that as much as 20% of the network hashrate is at risk due to less efficient mining computers being decommissioned.
In conclusion, the bitcoin mining industry is facing a critical moment. The approval of a spot BTC ETF could provide a catalyst for a rally, but the industry is also dealing with challenges like record-breaking hashrates and the upcoming block reward halving. JPMorgan’s research report provides insights into the preferred mining operators and their respective prospects. It remains to be seen how the industry will navigate these challenges and seize potential opportunities.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
Was ist ein Bitcoin ETF?
Ein Bitcoin Exchange-Traded-Fund (ETF) ist ein börsengehandelter Fonds, der den Preis von Bitcoin verfolgt und es Anlegern ermöglicht, in Bitcoin zu investieren, ohne die Kryptowährung direkt kaufen zu müssen. Ein ETF macht Bitcoin für institutionelle und private Anleger leichter zugänglich.
Was ist ein Block Reward Halving?
Das Block Reward Halving ist ein algorithmisches Ereignis im Bitcoin-Netzwerk, bei dem sich die Belohnung für das Schürfen neuer Bitcoins halbiert. Dies geschieht alle vier Jahre, um die Inflation der Kryptowährung zu begrenzen und das Angebot zu verringern. Das Halving wirkt sich direkt auf die Einnahmen der Bitcoin-Miner aus und kann erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Rentabilität haben.
Welche Mining-Unternehmen werden von JPMorgan am besten bewertet?
JPMorgan hat CleanSpark als sein bevorzugtes Mining-Unternehmen ausgewählt. Es bietet eine gute Balance zwischen Skalierbarkeit, Wachstumspotenzial, Energiekosten und relativer Wertigkeit. Marathon Digital und Riot Platforms wurden hingegen mit untergewichteten Bewertungen versehen, während Cipher Mining als neutral eingestuft wurde. JPMorgan hat Iris Energy von neutral auf übergewichtet hochgestuft.
Wie wird sich das bevorstehende Block Reward Halving auf die Bitcoin-Miner auswirken?
Das bevorstehende Block Reward Halving hat das Potenzial, die Rentabilität der Bitcoin-Miner zu beeinflussen. Durch die Halbierung der Belohnung für das Schürfen von neuen Bitcoins könnten weniger effiziente Mining-Computer aus dem Betrieb genommen werden. JPMorgan schätzt, dass bis zu 20% der Netzwerk-Hashrate von diesem Halving betroffen sein könnten. Dies könnte zu einer Verringerung der Mining-Kapazität und damit zu geringeren Einnahmen führen.
